Rwanda plan to increase asylum seeker housing costs £5 billion annually, claims think tank.

author: FutureCar Staff    

A report has revealed that the annual cost of accommodating asylum seekers in the UK will exceed £5 billion, even if the Government's plan to deport individuals to Rwanda is deemed lawful by the Supreme Court. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has warned that housing costs will continue to rise due to a backlog of asylum seeker cases, regardless of the number of people removed from the country. The report suggests that the rate of new arrivals seeking asylum will outpace removals, and the government's Illegal Migration Bill and Rwanda plan are unlikely to deter arrivals significantly.

The IPPR estimates that even if 500 people are removed each month, the annual housing costs for those in limbo could still exceed £5 billion after five years of the Illegal Migration Bill being in force. If only 50 people are removed per month, the housing costs would be even higher, surpassing £6 billion. The report emphasizes that the 2024 general election will be a crucial moment for asylum policy and urges the next government to prioritize addressing the crisis.

The government's plan to crack down on Channel crossings and clear the backlog of asylum cases includes the Illegal Migration Act and the relocation of asylum seekers to Rwanda. However, the Court of Appeal ruled the plan to remove asylum seekers to Rwanda unlawful in June. The government intends to take the case to the Supreme Court, while the number of migrants crossing the English Channel reached a record high for 2023 earlier this month. The backlog of asylum seekers awaiting an initial decision on their claim has more than tripled in the past three years, reaching over 172,000 people by the end of March 2023.

The current backlog is costing approximately £3.6 billion per year, with around £2.3 billion spent on hotels. In June, over 50,000 people were accommodated in hotels and other contingency accommodation. The cost of accommodating asylum seekers has also increased significantly, from an average of £14 per person per night in 2018 to an average of £90 per person per night in May 2023, according to the report.

The IPPR report suggests that the Illegal Migration Act could worsen the situation by creating a "perma-backlog" of individuals whose asylum claims cannot be processed or removed. The report estimates that 85% of irregular arrivals will require accommodation support at a cost of £85 per night. The IPPR predicts that between 50 and 500 people will exit asylum accommodation each month, either through return or removal to a third country like Rwanda. However, it is unlikely that Rwanda has the capacity to process such significant numbers of asylum applicants.

The report concludes that it is unlikely the Illegal Migration Act and the Rwanda deal will have a meaningful deterrent effect before the general election. The number of small boat arrivals in 2023 is similar to the number in 2022, indicating that the government's plans have not yet had a significant impact. The IPPR warns that any incoming government will face a costly challenge that must be addressed urgently, as the population of individuals in limbo continues to grow, putting pressure on the Home Office's accommodation and support systems.

The government is exploring options for new contingency accommodation, including the Bibby Stockholm barge in Dorset and military sites, in an effort to reduce hotel costs. However, the barge has faced issues, including a scare involving Legionella bacteria, and the transfer of asylum seekers onto the vessel has been slow. The Home Office has stated that the Illegal Migration Act will help clear the backlog by allowing for the detention and swift removal of those who arrive illegally. The department is also working to clear the "legacy" backlog of asylum cases and has increased the number of decision makers in post.

In conclusion, the report highlights the urgent need for action on asylum policy, as the cost of accommodating asylum seekers continues to rise and the backlog of cases grows. The government's plans to deport individuals to Rwanda and implement the Illegal Migration Act are unlikely to have a significant deterrent effect on arrivals. The incoming government after the 2024 general election will face a costly challenge that must be addressed promptly to prevent further strain on the asylum system and the risk of exploitation and destitution for those in limbo.

FutureCar Staff