UK asylum system's backlog predicted to worsen before next election

Home > Industry Analysis > Content

【Summary】A report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that the UK's asylum system will face a worsening crisis, resulting in a "perma-backlog" of asylum seekers unable to work. The report states that there is little hope of removing those who arrive by small boat to a third country, even with the proposed Rwanda plan. The backlog of asylum claims has already reached 133,000, and taxpayers may have to pay up to £6 billion annually to house asylum seekers who cannot work.

FutureCar Staff Aug 21, 2023 5:04 PM PT

UK asylum system's backlog predicted to worsen before next election

A recent report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) highlights the concerning situation the UK faces regarding asylum seekers arriving by small boats. The report states that there is little realistic prospect of these individuals being removed to a third country in sufficient numbers, even if the proposed Rwanda plan is implemented.

According to researchers, the UK is likely to experience a "perma-backlog" of asylum seekers who are unable to work and are left in limbo. The crisis is expected to worsen significantly by the next election.

The IPPR report also criticizes the laws implemented by the Tories, which result in thousands of individuals being unable to leave the country but also unable to apply for permission to stay. As a consequence, taxpayers may end up paying up to £6 billion annually to accommodate these asylum seekers, a significant increase from the current £3.6 billion.

The associate director for migration, trade, and communities at the IPPR, Marley Morris, warns that the government's current plan to forge ahead with the Rwanda deal and the Illegal Migration Act offers only a narrow window for success. Even with the Act fully implemented, it is likely that the number of arrivals will continue to exceed the number of removals. This will result in a growing population of individuals stuck in limbo, placing immense pressure on Home Office accommodation and support systems. Moreover, there is a risk of thousands of people disappearing from the official system and facing exploitation and destitution.

The IPPR report reveals that the backlog of asylum claims has significantly increased, reaching 133,000 in March of this year compared to less than 10,000 a decade ago. To clear this backlog, the government would need to make 12,400 decisions each month until the end of the year, three times the current rate.

Although the government claims it plans to return individuals who arrive by small boats to their home country or a third country, the IPPR argues that this approach is unlikely to be effective. The most common nationalities among these asylum seekers are Afghans, Syrians, Eritreans, Iraqis, and Iranians, and returning them to their countries of origin would be unethical, impractical, and a violation of the international law principle of 'non-refoulement'.

The IPPR also doubts that Rwanda will have the capacity to process a significant number of asylum applicants, further complicating the situation.

Despite making it one of his key pledges, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has refused to commit to stopping small boat crossings. When questioned about the feasibility of achieving this goal by the next election, Sunak acknowledged the complexity of the issue and stated that there is no simple solution that can be implemented overnight.

For more updates on political news, follow Mirror Politics on Snapchat, TikTok, Twitter, and Facebook.